Economic analysts at the research arms of investment banking groups- Dunn Loren Merrifield Limited and First Securities Discount House Limited (FSDH), say the nation’s inflation rate continues to rise, but at a slower pace, following which it may hit between 18.45% and 18.5% in November from 18.3% in October from previous month’s 17.9%
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is billed to release the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation data on December 15.
In a report on Friday, DLM analysts “estimate an increase in headline inflation to 18.5% year-on-year in November 2016; up by 13 basis points.
“Our model shows a movement in the food sub-index captured by “farm produce and processed foods” to 215.6points in November 2016 up from 184.1points in the corresponding month of the previous year,” the report notef.
“In addition, we expect a movement in the core sub-index to 207.4points during the month; up from 175.4points in November 2015.
“Hence, this translates into a food and core inflation of approximately 17.1% and 18.2% respectively in November 2016.
“Supported by trend analysis, we expect a slight increase in the headline rate for December 2016 largely driven by the festive period.”
This, they believe would result in a projected average inflation rate of 15.6% for 2016, helped by “the low inflation rate recorded in January 2016 (9.6%, which) weighed considerably on the projected average headline rate.”
Their colleagues at FSDH “expect the November 2016 inflation rate (year-on-year) to increase further to 18.45% from 18.33% recorded in the month of October 2016.”
The expected increase, according them, will be driven by higher prices within the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division, as well as the depreciation in the foreign exchange rate during the month.